What if mortgage rates don’t go up this year?



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With economic growth in full swing, one big question remains: When will mortgage rates rise to 4% or more?

Mortgage rates rose to 3.25% in mid-February compared with the recent record lows 2.625% at the beginning of the year, but has since declined to about 3.0% now. The bond market in 2021 was above 1.60% for a short time, with a recent high of around 1.75%. These harvests are the same as mine AB (America is back) economic recovery model, according to which the yield on 10-year bonds should be between 1.33% and 1.60% in 2021.

I was optimistic about the economic recovery last year and was bearish about the bond market; my maximum forecast for a 10-year bond yield for 2021 was 1.94%. The question is, why is the bond market and mortgage rates still acting as if the economy is in a phase of low growth with little inflation?

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