Wall Street expects profit growth


Wall Street expects to see a year-on-year increase in earnings from higher earnings when KKR Real Estate Finance (KREF) releases results for the quarter ending June 2021. While this well-known consensus forecast is important in assessing a company’s earnings picture, a powerful factor that can affect its share price in the short term is comparing actual results to those estimates.

The income statement, which is expected to be released on July 26, 2021, could help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than expected. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock could move lower.

While management’s discussion of the business environment in the income statement will largely determine the sustainability of immediate price changes and future earnings expectations, it is worth having a limited understanding of the chances of a positive share surprise.

Sachs consensus assessment

The real estate finance company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $ 0.49 per share in its upcoming report, up 8.9% from the same period last year.

Revenue is expected to be $ 37.5 million, up 2.3% year-on-year.

Assessment of the trend of change

The consensus EPS for the quarter has remained unchanged for the past 30 days. In essence, it is a reflection of how the leading analysts collectively revised their initial estimates for this period.

Investors should be aware that cumulative change may not always reflect the direction in which each analyst is revising estimates.

Price, Consensus and Surprise for EPS

Earning Whisper

The revision of estimates prior to the publication of the company’s income statement provides a key to understanding the business environment for the period to be published. Our patented Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is based on this understanding.

Zacks Earnings ESP compares the most accurate estimate to the Zacks consensus estimate for the quarter; The most accurate estimate is the latest version of the Zacks Consensus earnings per share estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates just before the earnings report is released have the most recent information that could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants predicted earlier.

Thus, a positive or negative ESP of earnings theoretically indicates the likely deviation of actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the predictive power of the model is only important for positive ESP values.

A positive earnings ESP is a strong predictor of profit growth, especially when combined with a Zacks rank of # 1 (strong buy), 2 (buy), or 3 (hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination cause a positive surprise almost 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks rating actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.

Note that a negative ESP for earnings does not indicate a miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of certainty for stocks with negative ESP earnings and / or a Sachs rating of 4 (sell) or 5 (strong sell).

How have the figures for KKR Real Estate changed?

For KKR Real Estate, the most accurate estimate is higher than the consensus estimate of the Zacks, suggesting that analysts have recently become optimistic about the company’s profit prospects. As a result, ESP profits + 3.09%.

On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks # 3 rating.

Thus, this combination indicates that KKR Real Estate is likely to outperform consensus earnings per share estimates.

Is there a clue to the windfall story?

When calculating estimates of a company’s future earnings, analysts often consider the extent to which it may have matched past consensus estimates. So, it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming date.

In the last quarterly quarter, KKR Real Estate was expected to post earnings of $ 0.50 per share, when in fact it posted earnings of $ 0.55, which was unexpectedly + 10%.

The company has tripled the EPS consensus estimate over the past four quarters.

Bottom line

Excess or decline in profits cannot be the only reason a stock moves up or down. Many stocks end up losing ground despite declining earnings due to other factors that disappoint investors. Likewise, unanticipated catalysts are helping a number of stocks rally despite lost profits.

However, stock betting that is expected to exceed earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it is worth checking the ESP earnings and Zacks ranking before releasing the quarterly issue. Be sure to use our earnings ESP filter to identify the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.

KKR Real Estate looks like a compelling candidate for revenue growth. However, investors must look at other factors to bet or stay away from this stock pending release.

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