The New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) is expected to deliver year-over-year earnings growth through higher earnings when it releases results for the quarter ending June 2021. This well-known consensus forecast provides a good indication of the company’s earnings picture. but how the actual results compare to those estimates is a powerful factor that can affect the short-term value of its stock.
The stock could rally if these key numbers exceed expectations in the upcoming income statement, which is expected to be released on Aug. 5. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock could fall.
While management’s discussion of the business environment in the P&L will mainly determine the sustainability of immediate price changes and future earnings expectations, it is worth having a limited understanding of the chances of a positive share surprise.
Sachs consensus assessment
The real estate investment fund is expected to post quarterly earnings of $ 0.11 per share in its upcoming report, up 37.5% from the same period last year.
Revenue is expected to be $ 33.19 million, up 16.3% from the same period last year.
Assessment of the trend of change
The consensus EPS for the quarter has remained unchanged for the past 30 days. In essence, it is a reflection of how the leading analysts collectively revised their initial estimates for this period.
Investors should be aware that the direction in which each analyst revises their estimates may not always be reflected in the cumulative change.
The revision of estimates prior to the publication of the company’s income statement provides a key to understanding the business environment for the period to be published. Our patented Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model is based on this understanding.
Zacks Earnings ESP compares the most accurate estimate to the Zacks consensus estimate for the quarter; The most accurate estimate is the latest version of the Zacks Consensus earnings per share estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates just before the earnings report is released have the most recent information that could potentially be more accurate than what they and other consensus participants predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative ESP of earnings theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the predictive power of the model is only important for positive ESP values.
A positive profit ESP is a strong predictor of profit growth, especially when combined with a Zacks rank of # 1 (strong buy), 2 (buy), or 3 (hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination cause a positive surprise almost 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks rating actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Note that a negative ESP for earnings does not indicate a miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict earnings growth with any degree of certainty for stocks with negative ESP earnings and / or a Sachs rating of 4 (sell) or 5 (strong sell).
How have the numbers changed for the New York Mortgage Trust?
For the New York Mortgage Trust, the most accurate estimate matches the Zacks consensus estimate, indicating that there is no recent analyst opinion that differs from what was taken for the consensus estimate. This resulted in a 0% profit for ESP.
On the other hand, the stock currently has a Zacks # 3 rating.
Thus, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that the New York Mortgage Trust will outperform the EPS consensus estimate.
Is there a clue to the windfall story?
When calculating estimates of a company’s future earnings, analysts often consider the extent to which it may have matched past consensus estimates. So, it’s worth taking a look at the surprise history to gauge its impact on the upcoming date.
The New York Mortgage Trust was expected to post earnings of $ 0.11 per share in the most recent reporting quarter, while actual earnings were $ 0.11, which is unsurprising.
Over the past four quarters, the company has doubled the net earnings per share consensus forecast.
Excess or decline in profits cannot be the only reason a stock moves up or down. Many stocks end up losing ground despite declining earnings due to other factors that disappoint investors. Likewise, unanticipated catalysts are helping a number of stocks rally despite lost profits.
However, stock betting that is expected to exceed earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it is worth checking the ESP earnings and Zacks ranking before releasing the quarterly issue. Be sure to use our earnings ESP filter to identify the best stocks to buy or sell before they report.
The New York Mortgage Trust does not appear to be a compelling profit candidate. However, investors should be aware of other factors in order to bet or stay away from these shares pending the release of the financials.
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