US Mortgage Rates Remain Stable, Outpacing Nonfarm Job Growth

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Mortgage rates remained unchanged, with 30-year fixed rates remaining unchanged after only 3 years higher.rd every 9 weeks in the previous week.

In the week ending 2nd Fixed 30-year rates for September remained unchanged at 2.87%. Mortgage rates rose 1 basis point the week before.

Rates on 30-year mortgages have only exceeded the 3% mark once since the age of 21.st April.

Compared to last year, 30-year fixed rates are down 6 basis points.

30-year fixed rates are still down 207 basis points from the last peak in November 2018 of 4.94%.

Economic data for the week

On the US economic calendar, it was a relatively busy first half of the week.

The focus was on consumer confidence, manufacturing PMIs and ADP nonfarm payrolls.

The statistics were skewed negatively, with consumer confidence falling in August.

However, activity in the manufacturing sector rose slightly in August: the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose from 59.5 to 59.9.

While ISM was positive for the market, labor market data disappointed ahead of Friday’s key NFP reading.

According to ADP, non-agricultural employment increased by 374 thousand in August, which is less than the projected jump by 613 thousand people.

Economic data from China was also skewed in the negative direction, which was an alarming signal regarding the pace of economic recovery.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 to 49.2, according to a survey by Markit.

Freddie McRates

Average weekly rates on new mortgages for 2 years.nd September cited Freddie Mac to be:

  • 30-year fixed rates for the week remained unchanged at 2.87%. This time last year the rates were 2.93%. The average commission remained unchanged and amounted to 0.6 points.
  • 15-year bonds rose 1 basis point over the week 2.18%. Rates were down 24 basis points from 2.42% a year ago. The average commission remained unchanged and amounted to 0.6 points.
  • Five-year fixed rates rose 1 basis point to 2.43%. Rates fell 50 points from 2.93% a year ago. The average commission increased from 0.2 points to 0.3 points.

According to Freddie Mac,

  • Economic growth and accelerating inflation slowed last month, which is calming the markets. As a result, mortgage rates have also stabilized.
  • On the eve of autumn, the demand for home purchases remains stable, while the volume of home sales remains stable and exceeds the pre-pandemic level.
  • Stocks of unsold homes remain scarce but are improving marginally.
  • The current dynamics of the sector will ease the price pressure on housing by the end of the year.

Rates of the Mortgage Bankers Association

A week before 27th August rates we:

  • Average interest rates for 30-year fixed loans with corresponding loan balances remained unchanged at 3.03%. Points increased from 0.29 to 0.34 (including processing fees) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates supported by the FHA fell from 3.10% to 3.09%. Points decreased from 0.29 to 0.25 (including creation fee) for 80% LTV loans.
  • Average 30-year interest rates on large loan balances remained unchanged at 3.13%. Points remained unchanged at 0.26 (including processing fees) for loans with LTV 80%.

Weekly data released by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association showed that the Market Composite Index, which measures the volume of applications for mortgages, fell 2.4% in the week ended 27.th August. The index rose 1.6% last week.

The refinancing index was down 4% and was 2% higher than in the same week a year ago. The index rose 10% last week.

Week Ending 27th In August, the share of refinancing mortgage activities fell from 67.3% to 66.8%. The share did not change and amounted to 67.3% a week earlier.

According to the MBA,

  • Mortgage interest rates have changed slightly last week.
  • Despite the low rates, refinancing applications were rejected as some borrowers expected further rate cuts.
  • Recent economic uncertainty and the pandemic have driven rates down.
  • Even with a slight increase, buying activity peaked since the beginning of July.
  • The activity of home buying is still dominated by the higher price levels of the market.
  • For the week, the average purchase loan size was $ 396,500, the highest in 5 weeks.

A week ahead

In terms of economic data, there is a quieter week ahead as US markets closed on Monday for Labor Day.

Economic data in 1st half a week limited to JOLT vacancies. Following last week’s nonfarm payrolls and a lack of statistics, yields could be tied to mortgage rates as early as the week.

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