Here’s the optimal lineup from last week on Travelers:
Perhaps another cheap lineup will once again be the key to making money on the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic, which will take place for the third time at the North Course at Detroit Golf Club. In these two previous editions, the effective result was significantly below par (25 and 23). This track is considered the flattest on the PGA Tour and looks more like a training field than a PGA Tour venue. No wonder that the best players in the world can choose Donald Ross’s hand separately…
While there is not much data on this event, trends are certainly starting to show. IN model of key course characteristics at RickRunGood.com boasts two main characteristics: hitting / approaching and hitting / pushing. This makes sense given that there is little danger outside of the tee, which means there is little punishment for poor drivers. This turns this track into a second shot competition and requires you to take a lot of birdie shots to keep up.
And of course, if you’re going to use the Bryson DeChambeau ($ 11,400 on DraftKings, $ 12,200 on FanDuel), you’ll have to dig into the $ 6,000 range to find some value. Luckily, we did some digging for you.
Here are my favorite plays (and fakes) in each price range for the 2021 Rocket Mortgage Classic.
High Upside: Webb Simpson ($ 10,600 DraftKings | $ 11,700 FanDuel)
A neck injury has limited Simpson’s start this season, but it should be a stellar event for him. Detroit Golf Club has little danger that can hide from the target, which means that even bad drivers will be in place after the first shot. Once those tees hit, Simpson becomes one of the best players on the fairway round the green. He can definitely pick up enough putts to fight this week.
Safest Option: Joaquin Niemann ($ 9800 DraftKings | $ 11,200 FanDuel)
The only flaw in Niemann’s acting is his acting without looking back. The good news for him this week is that if you rely on this aspect of your game, you’re not going to fight anyway. You will need to collect the greens according to the rules and give yourself as many birdie looks as possible, which is a style of play that is right in Niemann’s hands.
Most likely to disappoint: Hideki Matsuyama ($ 10,400 DraftKings | $ 11,900 FanDuel)
I’m usually more optimistic about Matsuyama than other people in the industry, but I have some concerns about his playing at the Detroit golf club. Given how this course works, you will need to do a ton of bird kicks to enter the competition. The problem for Matsuyama is that he is historically one of the worst golf clubs on the tour. He started to gain momentum with his flat club, but has lost a total of 12.06 strokes in the last three events, according to golf database RickRunGood.com.
Winner: Bryson DeShambeau ($ 11,400 DraftKings | $ 12,200 FanDuel)
I’m not sure there are many reasons for overthinking this. DeShambaut didn’t play very well last week and left a lot of shots over the weekend. He still finished the T-19 despite not having the best stuff. Now he gets the Detroit Golf Club, which he really surpassed last year in his 65th final round. While we talk about his driving all the time, most people don’t realize that he has had success with seven of his last 11 starts.
High Upside: Emiliano Grillo (DraftKings $ 8,200 | FanDuel $ 9,900)
Of course his stick worries me, but Grillo is one of the best hitters on the tour. Last week he didn’t manage to get out of the tournament, but he did get knocked out of the tournament on Thursday with a score of 74. He scored 65 on Friday, and while that wasn’t enough, perhaps he found something to carry over to this week …
Safest Option: Kevin Kisner ($ 8,500 DraftKings | $ 11,100 FanDuel)
We saw Kisner soar up the leaderboard on Sunday in Connecticut, playing his last 10 holes on 7+. It is this “lightning in a bottle” that will come in handy at this price point. Kisner’s ability to invest should give him the opportunities he needs at the Detroit golf club, where he finished third last year.
Most likely to disappoint: Jason Day ($ 8,900 DraftKings | $ 10,800 FanDuel)
Day exited the T-10 last week, his best record in recent memory. Day has been struggling with injuries for years, and watching him does not relieve any fears. He constantly grabs his back, stretches and generally looks uncomfortable. Based on the numbers, he relied heavily on his short play last week, hitting a total of 6.91 hits both around the green and over the club. This is about when you start projecting his forward movement.
Winner Peak: Gary Woodland ($ 8,600 DraftKings | $ 10,200 FanDuel)
In late 2020, Woodland suffered injuries and his game fell off a cliff. We’re starting to see signs of a resurgence for Woodland, who has been hitting target shots in eight of his last 14 starts and hitting on target in nine of the same 14 competitions. This is much more like the 2019 Forest Country, which has all the skills to win this event.
High Upside: Harold Warner III ($ 7800 DraftKings | $ 9500 FanDuel)
One of the most important statistics every week is the same this week – strokes / zooms. This is great news for Warner, who led the category last week with 6.87 shots on the field. Let’s see if he can take advantage of it again in Detroit.
Safest Option: Hank Lebioda ($ 7,200 DraftKings | $ 8,200 FanDuel)
Lebioda is in the midst of five events, resulting in five cuts, three top 20 hits, including his T-5 last week in Connecticut. During this stretch, he relied too much on his golf club, but that doesn’t really matter at the Detroit Golf Club where you need to put a good fight.
Most likely to disappoint: Kramer Hickok ($ 7,600 DraftKings | $ 8,700 FanDuel)
Hickok was absolutely magical last week, almost overtaking Harris English in the eight-hole playoffs. The emotional damage that Hikoku can do is immeasurable, so let’s look at his metrics instead. Hickok opted for a sizzling club with 7.51 hits on the green according to the RickRunGood.com database, the second highest in the field. This result is unstable considering that Hickok is ranked 137th on the tour this season.
Winner: Cameron Davis ($ 7,200 DraftKings | $ 8,700 FanDuel)
Detroit Golf Club offers little resistance or danger out of sight. This means that golfers who tend to shoot far but act inaccurately have the greatest perceived advantage. This description is perfect for Davis, who is 15th for driving range but 190th for accuracy. He’s in the top 30 mid-range players, so I couldn’t pick the best option for Davis.
High Upside: Chris Baker ($ 6300 DraftKings | $ 7000 FanDuel)
The last time we saw Baker finished the T-26 at the US Open, which is certainly an impressive achievement for a person in this price range. Baker has historically been hit with both the target and the sets he will need this week to overcome his long-term placement problems.
Safest Option: Adam Schenck ($ 6500 DraftKings | $ 7700 FanDuel)
There are several golfers in this range who have participated in this tournament each of the first two seasons of its existence. In both years, the number of layoffs has dropped even less, but Schenck can boast of this feat. He completed the T-42 in 2019 and the T-30 last year. He steps in this week after making six of the previous eight cuts and will hopefully keep in good spirits.
Most likely to disappoint: Satoshi Kodaira ($ 6800 DraftKings | $ 7900 FanDuel)
His T-36 last week was certainly worth the admission fee, but the TPC River Highlands was a great option for him. Detroit Golf Club will reward everyone with skill sets that Kodaira doesn’t possess. After four cuts in a row, many owners will choose Kodaira again this week, which could end very badly!
Pick to Win: Patrick Rogers ($ 6900 DraftKings | $ 8,800 FanDuel)
Rogers is a rare combination of a good racer and a good club – the two are usually incompatible. Detroit Golf Club is perhaps the best course for this combination. Rogers comes in this week with three consecutive cuts and finished the T-45 at this event last year.