Mortgage rates trampled on in anticipation of motivation

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On a weekly basis mortgage rates are modestly taller this afternoon compared to last Wednesday. More broadly, however, rates are best viewed as flat since they stabilized in late April after spending most of the month falling from longer-term highs.

In other words, we experienced the first big jump in rates since the coronavirus in early 2021, and now we waiting to see where the next big impulse takes us. Generally speaking, if the incoming economic data is much stronger than expected, the next rate change is likely to be “up”. This is a very simple principle that observers must understand, and rarely does everything end so neatly and logically.

In this case Not only the data should be stronger than expected, but these numbers need to be maintained for weeks or months to really deter the bond market from moving to significantly higher rates. Such journeys certainly have starting points, and we right now falling into a time frame where it’s not entirely insane to start looking for clues. One of the market’s favorite clues comes on the first Friday of every month in the form of official government job counts (The Employment Situation, better known as the Job Report).

Bottom line: This Friday’s employment report has some potential to cause less rate volatility (for better or worse), but it will take a concerted effort on the part of several economic reports before we finally break out of the current sideways pattern.

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