Mortgage rates today, July 10, and rates forecast for next week

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Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates rose slightly yesterday. But this was the first increase this week. And they are noticeably lower than they were last Friday.

So, last week my prediction of “sedentary” rates turned out to be wrong. And now I have to say that mortgage rates next week are unpredictable… However, I must mention that ups are common when periods of noticeable downturns end. But they are not inevitable.

Find and Block Low Rate (July 10, 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate APRIL * Change
Regular 30-year fixed 2.811% 2.811% Without changes
Regular 15 year fixed 2.125% 2.125% Without changes
Regular 20 year fixed 2.625% 2.625% + 0.13%
Regular 10 year fixed 1.944% 1,984% + 0.01%
30 year fixed FHA 2.672% 3.326% + 0.06%
15 year fixed FHA 2.365% 2.965% -0.07%
5/1 ARM FHA 2.5% 3.207% Without changes
30-year fixed VA 2,258% 2,429% + 0.01%
15 year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Without changes
5/1 AWP VA 2.5% 2,386% Without changes
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here

Find and Block Low Rate (July 10, 2021)


COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here

Should you fix your mortgage rate today?

After a couple of good weeks for mortgage rates, you might be feeling relaxed. But don’t be relaxed. The chances of their further fall seem insignificant to me. While an upward rebound looks more likely.

However, the markets have been behaving strangely lately. So it is entirely possible that you could win by continuing to keep your bet afloat. Just don’t complain if you get caught climbing. And be prepared to block at any time.

If I were you, I would be careful and lock myself now. So, my personal recommendations still apply:

  • LOCK if closing 7 days
  • LOCK if closing fifteen days
  • LOCK if closing thirty days
  • LOCK if closing 45 days
  • LOCK if closing 60 days

However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts can easily turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So be guided by your instinct and personal risk tolerance.

What drives current mortgage rates

Well, it has been a weird week. On Wednesday and Thursday, the markets were suddenly in panic. It suddenly dawned on them that the COVID-19 pandemic around the world was far from over. They may have had a false sense of security before, given that most of the participants have likely already received double vaccinations.

There were several economic and medical data that could have raised concerns for them. But I did not notice anything that could justify such a harsh reaction. It was more like a crush. For example, when one horse takes a branch for a rattlesnake and makes everyone else run away.

Of course, this does not mean that the pandemic still poses no real economic danger. There is. But they have been around for many months and have changed little.

Of course, if COVID-19 rears its ugly head again and disrupts the US and global economic recovery, mortgage rates are likely to drop significantly, possibly setting new all-time lows. And stock markets will fall too.

Investors claimed they were evaluating the opportunity when they traded on Wednesday and Thursday. But why they chose those days is unclear. One theory is that it suddenly dawned on them that recovering from COVID could be an evening out.

And maybe now that incentive checks are pretty much used up. But new infrastructure spending is just around the corner. And the latest data, with the exception of employment data, has been pretty good.

Fed continues to pose a big threat to mortgage rates

While the markets were moving away from their (hopefully) twig, they were too preoccupied to take into account some important developments emanating from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed released the latest minutes of its key policy making committee. And they showed that he is starting to move to a point where he can gradually slow down (“cut back”) his purchases of assets.

This was confirmed yesterday in an interview with The Financial Times, in which the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly said: “We are ready to cut at the right time.”

The problem is that these asset purchases involve $ 40 billion a month spent on mortgage-backed securities. And this turmoil keeps mortgage rates artificially low.

Worse, if what happened the last time the Fed announced a cut (in 2013) repeats itself, we may see average mortgage rates of around 3.5% very soon after such an announcement. At the moment, they fluctuate in the range of 2.9% -3%.

Economic reports next week

The next week will be busy for important economic reports, all of them will be for June, unless otherwise indicated. Inflation is one of the biggest obsessions in the markets right now. On Tuesday, the consumer price index (CPI) is published, including the core CPI, which is a CPI excluding volatile food and energy prices. Producer price index will be released on Wednesday, and import price index will be released on Thursday.

Thursday will also bring industrial production and retail sales on Friday. And it can help the markets decide whether they are frightened by a twig or a rattlesnake.

None of the other economic reports listed below are unlikely to cause strong movement in the markets unless they include shockingly good or bad data. Moreover, regular readers know that in recent months, investors have ignored most economic reports. Thus, the following effects may differ from the usual ones:

  • Tuesday – June CPI and core CPI
  • Wednesday – June Producer Price Index
  • Thursday – June import price index. And industrial production in June with capacity utilization. Plus new weekly unemployment insurance claims until July 10
  • Friday – June. Retail and retail sales excluding automobiles. Plus the July consumer sentiment index

After Monday next week, there will be something potentially important every day.

Find and Block Low Rate (July 10, 2021)

Forecast of interest rates on mortgages for the next week

I went back to my old excuse, which mortgage rates next week are essentially unpredictable… If you forced me to place a bet, I would modestly bet one cent on their raise. But to be honest, little has surprised me since last week.

Mortgage and refinancing rates usually change at the same time. But keep in mind that refinancing rates are currently slightly higher than mortgage rates. This gap is likely to remain fairly constant as they change.

Meanwhile, a recent legislative change has made the bulk of investment property and vacation home mortgages more expensive.

How the mortgage interest rate is determined

Mortgage and refinancing rates are usually determined by prices in the secondary market (similar to the stock or bond market) where mortgage-backed securities are traded.

And this is highly dependent on the economy. Thus, mortgage rates are usually high when things are going well and low when the economy is in trouble.

Your part

But you play a big role in determining your own mortgage interest rate in five ways. You can significantly influence this:

  1. Find the best mortgage rate – these vary greatly from lender to lender.
  2. Improving your credit score – even a small jump can make a big difference in your rates and payments
  3. Save the biggest down payment – lenders like you will have real skin in this game
  4. Keep your other loan modest – the smaller your other monthly commitments, the more mortgage you can afford.
  5. Choose your mortgage carefully. Are you better off taking a regular loan, FHA, VA, USDA, large or other loan?

Taking the time to get these ducks in a row can help you win lower rates.

Remember, this is not just a mortgage rate

Be sure to calculate all the upcoming homeownership costs when deciding how much mortgage you can afford. So focus on your PETE. It’s yours Principal (pays the amount you borrowed), Iinterest (borrowing price), (property) Taxes, and (homeowners) Iinsurance. Our mortgage calculator can help with this.

Depending on your type of mortgage and the amount of your down payment, you may also have to pay for mortgage insurance. And that can easily be expressed in three-digit numbers every month.

But there are other potential costs too. Thus, you will have to pay the dues to the homeowners association if you decide to live somewhere with an HOA. And wherever you live, you should expect repair and maintenance costs. When something goes wrong, there is no owner to call!

Finally, it will be difficult for you to forget about the closing costs. You can see them in the Annual Percentage Rate (APR) that you specify. Because it effectively distributes them over the term of your loan, making it higher than your normal mortgage rate.

But you may be able to get help with these final costs. as well as your down payment, especially if you are buying for the first time. To read:

Upfront Payment Support Programs in Each State for 2021

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of ​​what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA and fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.

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