Ultimately, the Fed will end these purchases. Mortgage rates rose in August only as Fed policymakers publicly discussed how and when purchases would end.
My prediction suggests that experts will reflect on this chart during the first three weeks of September and mortgage rates will tremble. I think the Fed will announce the aforementioned schedule at its monetary policy meeting that ends on September 22nd. That’s when mortgage rates will level out.
What can push rates up, down, or sideways
This prediction will be wrong if victims from COVID-19 it gets much worse, weakening the economy; in this case, mortgage rates may fall.
If I misunderstand the Fed and it does not announce the September 22 schedule, but instead postpones the announcement until a later meeting, mortgage rates could fall after that.
It is also possible that mortgage rates have already completed their rise prior to the Fed’s introduction in August and will remain stable for most of September.
Finally, instead of announcing a timetable for cutting debt purchases in late fall, the Fed could actually start the process shortly after the September meeting. Such an unexpected announcement could lead to a sharp rise in mortgage rates.