Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates only rose slightly last Friday. This ended a very bad week for those bets.
World markets were volatile this morning. So the forecasts are speculative. But if you’re lucky mortgage rates may remain stable today – or close to stable…
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||Annual interest rate *||Change|
|Regular 30 year fixed||2.936%||2.936%||Without changes|
|Regular 15 year fixed||2.37%||2.37%||Without changes|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.75%||2.75%||Without changes|
|Regular 10 year fixed||2.077%||2.11%||Without changes|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.806%||3.464%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.291%||+ 0.22%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.22%||+ 0.01%|
|30-year fixed VA||2.375%||2,547%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Without changes|
|5 years of ARM VA||2.5%||2.399%||+ 0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
So this past week has been bad for mortgage rates. But would it be any better? Well maybe. But that says little.
With any luck, those who are still hesitating about their mortgage rates may have dodged a bullet. But the big picture remains: most economists think that mortgage rates in general will rise when they finally break out of their current tight range.
So my personal recommendations for blocking speed should remain:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing fifteen days
- LOCK if closing thirty days
- LOCK if closing 45 days
- LOCK if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. The data, compared to about the same time last Friday, were as follows:
- IN profitability of 10 year Treasurys fell to 1.48% from 1.50%. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these specific Treasury bond yields, although this has become less lately.
- Major stock indices were mostly higher shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
- Oil prices rose to $ 72.02 a barrel from $ 71.16 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices stable at $ 1,776 ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Index – dropped to 30s 35 out of 100. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) when they leave the bond market and go into equities, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. Thus, lower values are better than higher values.
* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we consider significant differences to be only good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats regarding markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But, with this caveat, for now It looks like mortgage rates will go down today. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (where rates change direction throughout the day) are common now.
Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only top tier borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher after regulatory changes.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The day before, the stock markets of the Asia-Pacific region were in turmoil, which led to large losses. This is in part due to the appearance on CNBC last Friday of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard. He predicted that the Fed could raise its own interest rates (which have little to do with mortgage rates) as early as next year, earlier than previously predicted. Stock markets reacted badly to his words.
But what is bad for stocks can be good for bonds. The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 1.58% last week. But today they fell again to 1.43%. Sadly, they were up 1.48% by 9:48 am ET this morning. And the yields on these particular notes are usually closely related to mortgage rates.
So the immediate outlook looks better for mortgage rates. But at the moment they are clearly subject to considerable instability. And there is no guarantee that they will stay low for long.
Meanwhile, the forces acting on these rates seem to be strongly aligned to eventually push them up. But no one knows how soon “finally” will come.
Of course, there is always the likelihood of some kind of huge catastrophe that will undermine the economic recovery and lead to lower mortgage rates. But at present, that looks much less likely than most economists predict: higher mortgage rates lie ahead.
For more information read Saturday weekend release this column, which has more room for deeper analysis.
Throughout most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly declining. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, in April these rises were mainly replaced by falls, although they slowed down in the second half of that month. Meanwhile, in May, the fall was slightly higher than the rise. In Freddie’s June 17 report, this figure for the week is 2.93% (with 07 commissions and points). down from 2.96% in the previous week. But that won’t include most of the sharp climbs we’ve seen in the past week.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts – updated today
Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (Q2 / Q21, Q3 / Q21, Q4 / Q21) and for Q1 2022 (Q1 / Y22).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie were updated on June 16 and MBA on June 18. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th. But now it is only updated quarterly. Thus, his numbers are starting to look outdated.
|Forecaster||2 quarter 21 years||3 quarter 21 years||Quarter 4/21||1 quarter / 22 year|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau He speaks:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find on the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA and fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.