Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell last Friday. And they start this week at their lowest level in more than a month.
However, it looks like they cannot stay there for long. As early moves in the markets suggest mortgage rates may rise today…
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||Annual interest rate *||Change|
|Regular 30-year fixed||2.814%||2.814%||Without changes|
|Regular 15 year fixed||2.138%||2.138%||+ 0.01%|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.625%||2.625%||Without changes|
|Regular 10 year fixed||1.945%||1,978%||Without changes|
|Regular 5 year old ARM||3.532%||3.191%||Without changes|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.343%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.415%||3.015%||+ 0.14%|
|5 years ARM FHA||2.5%||3.194%||Without changes|
|30-year fixed VA||2,255%||2,426%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2.571%||Without changes|
|5 years of ARM VA||2.5%||2.372%||Without changes|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
The falls of the past week were welcome. But I see no reason to think that they will last long.
Meanwhile, the risks of a floating rate remain real. Because most experts expect mortgage rates to skyrocket at some point.
And so my personal recommendations for blocking speed should remain:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing fifteen days
- LOCK if closing thirty days
- LOCK if closing 45 days
- LOCK if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. The data, compared to about the same time last Friday, were as follows:
- IN profitability of 10 year Treasurys rose to 1.49% from 1.46%. (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these specific Treasury bond yields, although this has become less recently.
- Major stock indices were mostly lower when opening. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
- Oil prices rose to $ 71.62 from $ 70.55 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices dropped to $ 1866 from $ 1887 an ounce. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Index – dropped to 53 from 54 out of 100 (Suitable for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) when they leave the bond market and go into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. Hence, lower values are better than higher ones.
* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we consider significant differences to be only good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats regarding markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But, with this caveat, for now Mortgage rates are likely to be higher today. However, keep in mind that intraday swings (when the rates change direction during the day) are commonplace right now.
Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only top tier borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher after regulatory changes.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Markets seem almost perverse in their responses to economic data right now. But this cannot last forever.
And, in my opinion, the forces that can raise mortgage rates are growing:
- A better economy usually means higher rates. And most economists expect 2021 to be a boom year.
- If inflation continues to rise, the Federal Reserve may be forced to slow down or stop purchasing (currently at $ 40 billion a month) Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). And these purchases are now artificially lowering mortgage rates.
The danger is that markets that resist these forces could create a dam. And we all know what happens when a dam breaks.
Tomorrow will begin a two-day meeting of the Fed’s main policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 pm ET on Wednesday.
The committee is likely to at least discuss inflation and whether its asset purchases, including MBS, can continue as long as currently planned. If he signals that he is considering a gradual reduction (“narrowing”), it will be dangerous for mortgage borrowers.
Most likely, Mr. Powell will be very firm in his commitment to keep these purchases on track. Because if he doesn’t, mortgage rates could rise, possibly dramatically.
A glimpse of hope?
On Saturday weekend release in this column I have explored a new phenomenon. And this is due to the current weakness of the dollar.
When the dollar is weak, foreign investors get more dollars by exchanging their currency. And that makes American investments that much more attractive.
Some foreign investors are buying up 10-year US Treasury bonds. And they are probably buying mortgage-backed securities at the same time. And the more they buy, the higher the price of these MBSs – and the lower their profitability, and hence the mortgage interest rates.
But don’t worry too much just yet. Last week, CNBC quoted Paresh Upadhyaya, director of fixed income and foreign exchange strategy at Amundi US. He said:
The dollar is on the sidelines as it expects the risk of the next key event, namely the FOMC meeting and the prospects that the Fed may start talking about a cut, which could support the dollar.
– CNBC, “Dollar falls after inflation data ahead of FOMC, “June 9, 2021
So Jay Powell’s press conference on Wednesday is a lot of interesting stuff.
For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, in April these rises were mainly replaced by falls, although they slowed down in the second half of that month. Meanwhile, there was a slight drop in May compared to growth. In Freddie’s June 10 report, this figure for the week is 2.96% (with 0.7 commission and points), down from 2.99% in the previous week.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current forecasts of rates for the remaining quarters of 2021 (2/21 quarter, 3/21 quarter, 4/21 quarter) and for the first quarter of 2022 (1/22 quarter).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie was updated on May 19 and MBA on May 21. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th. But now it is only updated quarterly. So expect his numbers to start looking outdated soon.
|Forecaster||2 quarter 21 years||3 quarter 21 years||4 quarter / 21 years||Q1 / 22|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau He speaks:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA is fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.