Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates fell yesterday. At least this time, we have a pretty good idea why. It was likely disappointing weekly unemployment data in the morning.
No such data this morning. AND mortgage rates are likely to rise moderately today. But, as always, there is a risk that the markets will speed up, slow down or change direction within a few hours.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||Annual interest rate *||Change|
|Regular 30 year fixed||2.736%||2.736%||-0.03%|
|Regular 15 year fixed||1.99%||1.99%||Without changes|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.375%||2.375%||-0.12%|
|Regular 10 year fixed||1,847%||1,873%||-0.01%|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.632%||3.284%||-0.05%|
|15 year fixed FHA||2,369%||2.968%||Without changes|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Without changes|
|30-year fixed VA||2.25%||2.421%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed VA||2.125%||2.445%||-0.13%|
|5/1 AWP VA||2.5%||2.392%||Without changes|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
In Freddie Mac’s Weekly Rates Report yesterday, the average for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 2.78% (with 0.7 commission and points). And that’s within the reach of a historic low of 2.65%. So is it worth the wait for it to reach (or possibly go below) this all-time low?
I wouldn’t blame you for trying. But at the moment, the likelihood of a rate hike is about the same as that of a fall. So this is a gamble. And in the entire 50-year history of Freddie’s records, there were only three times when average monthly were below 2.78%. Thus, blocking now would mean you are taking a historically amazing trade while avoiding the risk of higher rates ahead.
Since I prefer prudence over valor, my personal recommendations for blocking bets still apply:
- CASTLE if closing 7 days
- CASTLE if closing fifteen days
- CASTLE if closing thirty days
- CASTLE if closing 45 days
- CASTLE if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. The data compared to about the same time yesterday were as follows:
- IN 10-year Treasury bond yield increased to 1.30% from 1.27%… (Bad for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these specific Treasury bond yields, although this has become less recently.
- Major stock indices were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
- Oil prices Rose for $ 71.73 against $ 70.55 per barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices gradually decreased to $ 1,797 from $ 1,799 oz. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Index – up to 31 s 28 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) when they leave the bond market and go into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. Thus, lower values are better than higher ones.
* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats regarding markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But, with this caveat, for now mortgage rates are likely to rise today… But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (where rates change direction throughout the day) are common now.
Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent change in legislation has narrowed the gap that previously existed.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Have I unfairly called the markets “irrational” and “emotional” compared to the sharp drop in mortgage rates we saw last week? I do not think so.
But this does not mean that the markets have no basis for some concerns:
- Infection rates with the Delta COVID-19 variant are skyrocketing in many large economies as well as emerging economies. While vaccines provide good protection against hospitalization and death, vaccination rates in the United States and elsewhere unfortunately remain stable.
- The consequence of the pandemic is a serious supply chain disruption that affects some productivity. For example, General Motors is suspending production of many of its full-size pickup trucks for a week because it cannot get enough computer chips. Other automakers in other countries are facing similar challenges. And yesterday, Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger said it “may take one or two years to get back to a reasonable balance of supply and demand in the semiconductor industry,” according to The Wall Street Journal.
- Yesterday’s weekly new jobless claims data was disappointingly high. Yes, weekly data is a poor benchmark. But it cannot be denied that we have a way before we replace all the jobs lost as a result of the pandemic.
So yes. Markets need to be wary of how these problems unfold in the future. But they act as if it is already clear that the economic recovery will stop and die. And this is simply not the case. Indeed, the most recent economic data show that he remains alive and strong.
If this data remains positive, it is difficult to see how the markets can maintain their pessimism. And, if and when their Damascus appeal to optimism occurs, mortgage rates are likely to rise.
For much of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, in April and since then, these rises were mainly replaced by falls, although, as a rule, small ones. In Freddy’s July 22nd report, this weekly average is 2.78% (with 0.7 commission and points). way down from 2.88% in the previous week.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (3/21 and 4/21 quarters) and the first two quarters of 2022 (1/22 and 2/22 quarters).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie was updated on July 19, Freddie’s on July 15, and the MBA on July 21.
|Forecaster||3 quarter 21 years||4 quarter / 21 years||1 quarter / 22 year||Quarter 2/22|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
All these forecasts imply an increase in mortgage rates in the near future. But the differences are striking. And it may turn out that Fannie is not helping to cut back on mortgage rates from the Federal Reserve, unlike Freddie and the MBA.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau speaks:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find on the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA and fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.