Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates dropped markedly yesterday. These are four consecutive working days of falls. And now they are extremely low; not a million miles from their all-time low.
And they may not be finished yet. Because, judging by the early activity in key markets, this decline may be slowing, not stopping. As well as mortgage rates today are likely to drop slightly… But overnight the markets indicated a slight increase, so the situation is far from stable and may change over time.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||APRIL *||Change|
|Regular 30 year fixed||2.686%||2.686%||-0.12%|
|Regular 15 year fixed||1.99%||1.99%||-0.14%|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.375%||2.375%||-0.12%|
|Regular 10 year fixed||1,851%||1,858%||-0.11%|
|30 year fixed FHA||2,563%||3.214%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.397%||2.997%||-0.08%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Without changes|
|30-year fixed VA||2.25%||2.421%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2.571%||Without changes|
|5/1 AWP VA||2.5%||2.392%||Without changes|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
Read why mortgage rates are currently so unpredictable. Unfortunately, this makes both blocking and swimming risky.
Those of us who predicted higher mortgage rates (almost all experts and observers) have been completely wrong so far. But the fact that we misinterpreted the time doesn’t necessarily mean that they won’t grow up soon. And as long as the forces that are supposed to raise these rates remain strong, I must adhere to my long-standing point of view. However, I am less confident than I was before.
So, while they should be interpreted in this context, my personal recommendations for blocking speed should remain:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing fifteen days
- LOCK if closing thirty days
- LOCK if closing 45 days
- LOCK if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. The data compared to about the same time yesterday were as follows:
- IN 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 1.16% from 1.21%… (Suitable for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates tend to follow these specific Treasury bond yields, although this has become less lately.
- Major stock indices almost all rose shortly after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
- Oil prices To fall down $ 66.08 a barrel compared to $ 68.72 a barrel. (Suitable for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices rose to $ 1826 from $ 1,810 oz. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Index – cropping below to 16s 19 out of 100. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. Hence, lower values are better than higher ones.
* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we only consider significant differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats regarding markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But, with this caveat, for now It looks like mortgage rates will decrease slightly today. But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (where rates change direction throughout the day) are common these days.
Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in the advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher after regulatory changes.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Market moves over the past couple of business days have been unusually sharp. A week ago, the yield on 10-year Treasuries (the rate of which on mortgages is often hidden) closed at 1.42%. But they closed at 1.21% last night. And this morning they were 1.15%. These are huge differences.
You can attribute these falls to pure emotion, namely fear. There are now compelling reasons to fear the potential damage COVID-19 could cause to the global economy. But if some new medical statistic or economic indicator is causing the recent drop in Treasury yields, mortgage rates, and stocks, it has bypassed me. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reed seems to agree, according to the Guardian this morning:
Unlike some previous Covid-related sell-offs (or indeed vaccine rallies), it looks like there was no single starting point behind yesterday’s debacle, which instead looked like the culmination of growing fears that a return to “ normalcy ” could occur. a little further than many hoped a few months ago.
– Guardian, Business Today Newsletter, July 20, 2021
So it looks like investors are suddenly afraid of a risk that has been in sight for months. And despite the myth of ideal markets, they are just as vulnerable to herding behavior as consumers are when they panic buying toilet paper.
The problem is that this emotionally driven herd mentality is inherently fickle and unpredictable. It already seems that mortgage rates may fall much more slowly. And I cannot tell if they will return to normal in the coming days (weeks or months) or will fall again. I doubt anyone can, especially in the herd.
Read Saturday weekend release, for more information.
For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, in April and since then, these rises were mainly replaced by falls, albeit small ones. In Freddie’s July 15 report, this weekly average is 2.88% (with 0.7 commission and points). down from 2.90% in the previous week. And it is very likely that they will be even lower after the release on Thursday.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (3/21 and 4/21 quarters) and the first two quarters of 2022 (1/22 and 2/22 quarters).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie was updated on July 19, Freddie on July 15, and MBA on June 18.
|Forecaster||3 quarter 21 years||4 quarter / 21 years||Q1 / 22||Quarter 2/22|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau He speaks:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA and fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.