Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates rose moderately yesterday. But they are still at the bottom of the limited range, in which they have been moving for several months.
The consumer price index was above expectations this morning. However, mortgage rates are likely to remain stable or close to stable today. However, the markets remain unpredictable.
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||Annual interest rate *||Change|
|Regular 30 year fixed||2.811%||2.811%||Without changes|
|Regular 15 year fixed||2.125%||2.125%||Without changes|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.625%||2.625%||Without changes|
|Regular 10 year fixed||1.944%||1,984%||Without changes|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.343%||+ 0.02%|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.5%||3.101%||-0.02%|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.213%||Without changes|
|30-year fixed VA||2.295%||2,467%||+ 0.04%|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2.571%||Without changes|
|5/1 AWP VA||2.5%||2.392%||Without changes|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
Are we seeing the start of a move towards higher mortgage rates? May be. But it is more likely that it will be a limited bounce after hitting recent lows. These bounces are common. Technically speaking, these are not “market corrections” (this jargon is reserved for larger changes), but they are markets that correct themselves after going too far.
Whether these rates continue higher, pause, or decline is likely to depend on new economic data, some of which are slated for this week. But experts agree that they will soon start climbing higher. Unfortunately, no one knows exactly when.
So, my personal recommendations for blocking speed should remain:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing fifteen days
- LOCK if closing thirty days
- LOCK if closing 45 days
- LOCK if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
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Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in the advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. But some types of refinancing are higher after regulatory changes.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
Investors aren’t sure what’s going on. The latest economic data shows that the US economic recovery is approaching a record year. But there are dangers, mainly from COVID-19, that make them nervous. Thus, they alternately appear panicky and regain confidence.
This applies to many markets, including the one where Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) are traded. And these securities directly determine mortgage rates.
Thus, changing investor sentiment is key to how big your monthly payment for your next home will be.
Fed continues to threaten low mortgage rates
However, depending on when you should block, the actions of the Federal Reserve could prove to be an even greater threat to your future monthly payments than investor sentiment. This is because the Fed currently buys $ 40 billion worth of MBS every month. And that keeps mortgage rates artificially low.
But with the exception of some economic disasters, almost everyone (including their own officials) admits that the Fed will have to phase out (“shrink,” in Fed terms), these purchases likely this year. Here is the opinion of Comerica Bank’s chief economist on what might happen and when. (FOMC – Fed Monetary Policy Committee):
We expect the upcoming FOMC meeting on July 27/28 to see more discussion of the asset purchases cut in the FOMC, as well as additional public comment. In an upcoming commentary, we expect the Fed to confirm that they will begin to slow down their asset purchases before the end of this year. Right now, the window for a possible start to a gradual transition looks like it starts at the end of September and will last until the end of December.
If the Fed is concerned about an overheating economy and accelerating inflation, they could start to decline by the end of September. They could use their annual Jackson Hole conference in late August to signal cuts in late September or October. If they are less worried about inflationary pressures, they can wait until mid-September for the FOMC meeting to announce that they will begin to decline by the end of December. Much depends on how the Fed evaluates inflationary pressures.
– Comerica Bank, US Economic Outlook July 2021 Fact Sheet Retrieved July 12, 2021
The Hot CPI this morning is adding pressure from the Fed to narrow sooner rather than later.
It’s worth noting that the last time the Fed cut back on asset purchases in 2013, mortgage rates rose sharply following the announcement of its plans, months before the actual cut began. Will history repeat itself this time? We cannot be sure.
But this is clearly a great opportunity. And, if that happens again, we may see sharply higher mortgage rates as early as this month or next.
For more information read Saturday weekend release this column, which has more room for deeper analysis.
For most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates was clearly downward. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, in April and since then, these rises were mainly replaced by falls, albeit small ones. In Freddie’s report of July 8, this figure for the week is 2.9% (with 0.6 commission and points). down from 2.98% in the previous week.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (3/21 and 4/21 quarters) and the first two quarters of 2022 (1/22 and 2/22 quarters).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie were updated on June 16 and MBA on June 18. Freddie’s forecast is dated April 14th. But now it is only updated quarterly. So his numbers look outdated.
|Forecaster||3 quarter 21 years||Quarter 4/21||1 quarter / 22 year||Quarter 2/22|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau He speaks:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA is fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.