Mortgage and refinancing rates today, August 16

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Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates

Average mortgage rates fell slightly last Friday. But despite the fact that they fell three days in a row, on Friday night, these figures were higher than seven days earlier. Nonetheless, “rates remain very low,” chief economist Freddie Mac was quoted as saying on Thursday.

For now, the good news may persist following sudden disappointing data on China’s recent economic growth. because mortgage rates may fall again today… But, as always, the situation can change over time.

Find and Block Low Rate (16 Aug 2021)

Current mortgage and refinancing rates

Program Mortgage rate Annual interest rate * Change
Regular 30-year fixed 2.808% 2.808% Without changes
Regular 15 year fixed 1.99% 1.99% Without changes
Regular 20 year fixed 2.49% 2.49% Without changes
Regular 10 year fixed 1,856% 1,899% Without changes
30 year fixed FHA 2.688% 3.343% Without changes
15 year fixed FHA 2,384% 2.984% -0.01%
5/1 ARM FHA 2.5% 3.213% Without changes
30-year fixed VA 2,253% 2,424% Without changes
15 year fixed VA 2.25% 2,571% Without changes
5/1 AWP VA 2.5% 2.392% Without changes
Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here
Find and Block Low Rate (16 Aug 2021)

COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here

Should you fix your mortgage rate today?

Recent drops are encouraging. And maybe they will continue for some time.

But don’t give in to a false sense of security. Almost all experts are expecting a rate hike in the near future. And the risks of continuing to sail, in my opinion, outweigh the likely benefits.

However, for now, my personal recommendations for blocking speed remain the same:

  • CASTLE if closing 7 days
  • CASTLE if closing fifteen days
  • CASTLE if closing thirty days
  • TO SWIM if closing 45 days
  • TO SWIM if closing 60 days

However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.

Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. Data compared to about the same time last friday, we:

  • IN 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 1.23% from 1.34%… (Very good at mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates generally match the yield on those particular Treasuries.
  • Major stock indices were lower shortly after opening. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
  • Oil prices fell To $ 66.21 from $ 69.01 per barrel. (Suitable for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
  • Gold prices rose up to $ 1787 from $ 1,766 oz. (Suitable for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold is rising and worse when gold is falling. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
  • CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Indexdropped to 46 from 49 out of 100. (Suitable for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while frightened investors do the opposite. Hence, lower values ​​are better than higher ones.

* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we consider significant differences to be only good or bad for mortgage rates.

Caveats regarding markets and rates

Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.

Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But, with this caveat, for now mortgage rates are likely to decline today… But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (where rates change direction throughout the day) are common now.

Find and Block Low Rate (16 Aug 2021)

Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates

Here’s what you need to know:

  1. Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. To read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
  2. Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in the advertisements.
  3. Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
  4. When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
  5. Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed the gap that previously existed.

So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.

Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?

Today etc

Bond markets continue to behave as if we were stuck in a recession rather than experiencing the biggest boom since the 1980s. Why is a mystery. But that explains why mortgage rates are so low. These rates are mainly determined by prices and yields by type of bonds, namely mortgage-backed securities. And the prices and yield of bonds change in inverse proportion.

At least last Friday, you could understand why these rates have gradually declined. On that day, the University of Michigan published its Consumer Sentiment Index. And it was terrible. According to the report, this showed a “staggering loss of confidence in the first half of August.” Indeed, the index has dropped 13.5% since July. And that was slightly worse than the April 2020 low at the height of pandemic fears.

The bond traders jumped at it. And they ignored narrative part presented in the reportauthors:

… The extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments … reflects an emotional reaction, largely due to the dashed hopes that the pandemic will end soon. In the coming months, it is likely that consumers will again voice more reasonable expectations, and with control over the Delta option, shift towards overt optimism.

Meanwhile, reasons to believe that mortgage rates will rise soon remain strong. These rates almost always rise when the economy is doing well. And the Fed looks set to cut back on its MBS purchases, which currently keep mortgage rates low, for weeks or months.

For more information read Saturday weekend release this column.

Mortgage rates and inflation: why are rates going up?

Recently

Throughout most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly declining. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.

The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.

However, since April, these rises have mainly been replaced by falls, although, as a rule, small ones. According to Freddie’s Aug 12 report, the weekly average is 2.87% (from 0.7 fees and points), up from 2.77% in the previous week.

Expert mortgage rate forecasts

Looking ahead, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.

And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (3/21 and 4/21 quarters) and the first two quarters of 2022 (1/22 and 2/22 quarters).

The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie was updated on July 19, Freddie’s on July 15, and the MBA on July 21.

Forecaster 3 quarter 21 years 4 quarter / 21 years 1 quarter / 22 year Quarter 2/22
Fannie Mae 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2%
Freddie Mac 3.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6%
MBA 3.2% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0%

However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.

All these forecasts imply an imminent increase in mortgage rates. But the differences between forecasters are striking. And it may turn out that Fannie is not helping to cut back on mortgage rates from the Federal Reserve, unlike Freddie and the MBA.

Find your lowest rate today

Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.

But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.

But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau speaks:

Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.

Confirm New Bid (16 Aug 2021)

Mortgage rate methodology

Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of ​​what you can find in the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA is fixed with fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.


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