Today’s mortgage and refinancing rates
Average mortgage rates remained stable last Friday. And they ended the week a little lower than they started. Thus, they remain at the lowest level in history.
First, this morning it looked like mortgage rates are flat today or just an inch on either side of the neutral line. But that can change over time.Find and Block Low Rate (23 Aug 2021)
Current mortgage and refinancing rates
|Program||Mortgage rate||Annual interest rate *||Change|
|Regular 30-year fixed||2.771%||2.771%||Without changes|
|Regular 15 year fixed||1.992%||1.992%||Without changes|
|Regular 20 year fixed||2.49%||2.49%||Without changes|
|Regular 10 year fixed||1,851%||1,898%||Without changes|
|30 year fixed FHA||2.688%||3.343%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed FHA||2.388%||2.988%||Without changes|
|5/1 ARM FHA||2.5%||3.201%||-0.01%|
|30-year fixed VA||2,255%||2,426%||Without changes|
|15 year fixed VA||2.25%||2,571%||Without changes|
|5/1 AWP VA||2.5%||2,379%||-0.01%|
|Rates are provided by our partner network and may not reflect the market. Your rating may be different. Click here for a personalized quote… See our rate suggestions here…|
COVID-19 Mortgage News: Mortgage lenders are changing rates and rules due to COVID-19. For the latest information on how the coronavirus can affect your home loan, Click here…
Should you fix your mortgage rate today?
Mortgage rates have been ups and downs lately. But now they started to move in a narrow range again. As long as this lasts, you will gain or lose little by floating in the air.
If I were you, I would soon block my tariff. Because I believe the risks of higher rates outweigh the likely benefits of floating rates. But you can take the opposite point of view. It’s all about your risk appetite.
So, for now, my personal recommendations for blocking speed remain valid:
- LOCK if closing 7 days
- LOCK if closing 15 days
- LOCK if closing thirty days
- SWIM if closing 45 days
- SWIM if closing 60 days
However, I do not pretend to be perfect foresight. And your personal analysis may turn out to be as good as mine – or even better. So you can be guided by your instincts and personal risk tolerance.
Market Data Affecting Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s a snapshot of the game state this morning at about 9:50 am ET. The data, compared to about the same time last Friday, were as follows:
- V 10-year Treasury bond yield stays stable at 1.26%… (Neutral for mortgage rates.) More than in any other market, mortgage rates generally match the yield on those particular Treasuries.
- Major stock indices were higher soon after opening. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy stocks, they often sell bonds, which lowers their value and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite can happen when the indices are lower.
- Oil prices rose To $ 64.88 a barrel compared to $ 62.91 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates *.) Energy prices play a big role in creating inflation, and also indicate future economic activity.
- Gold prices rose to $ 1805 from 1 dollar,787 oz. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) In general, it is better for betting when gold rises and worse when gold falls. Gold tends to rise when investors are worried about the economy. And worried investors tend to cut rates
- CNN’s Business Fear and Greed Index – increased to 30 from 22 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors lower bond prices (and raise interest rates) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while frightened investors do the opposite. Thus, lower values are better than higher ones.
* Change in gold prices of less than $ 20 or 40 cents for oil is a 1% share. Thus, we consider significant differences to be only good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats regarding markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s intervention in the mortgage market, you could look at the numbers above and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But this is no longer the case. We still call every day. And they are usually right. But our accuracy record won’t reach its previous high level until things settle down.
Therefore, use the markets only as a rough guide. Because they must be exceptionally strong or weak in order to rely on them. But with this caveat, for now mortgage rates today are likely to remain unchanged or almost unchanged… But keep in mind that “intraday swings” (where rates change direction throughout the day) are common now.
Important Notes About Today’s Mortgage Rates
Here’s what you need to know:
- Typically, mortgage rates rise when the economy is doing well and fall when it is in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care
- Only “top tier” borrowers (with great credit ratings, large down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultra-low mortgage rates you’ll see in the advertisements.
- Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate moves – although they all tend to follow a broader trend over time.
- When daily rate changes are minor, some lenders adjust closing costs and leave their price lists unchanged.
- Refinancing rates are usually close to those for purchases. And a recent regulatory change has narrowed the gap that previously existed.
So there’s a lot going on here. And no one can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Are mortgage and refinancing rates rising or falling?
The markets seem to be pretty calm right now. And so they can stay for several days or even weeks.
But it’s entirely possible that things could change on Friday. Because there are two potentially important events visible here:
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a virtual speech at the annual symposium for central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. And while it’s unlikely he’ll say anything to upset the markets, he just might
- Also released this morning is the Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE), excluding food and energy (“core PCE”). This is the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator. So it has a huge impact. And it can move markets easily if it contains unexpectedly good or bad data.
When asked back in the 1950s what makes his job difficult, then British Prime Minister Harold Macmillan replied: “Events, dear boy. Events. “Same problem for economists and forecasters. No matter how complex your forecasting model is, unforeseen events have the nasty habit of happening and making you look stupid.
So it is never safe to assume the markets will be calm. But it wouldn’t be surprising if the ones that affect mortgage rates stayed that way until at least Friday.
For more information read Saturday weekend release this column.
Throughout most of 2020, the overall trend in mortgage rates has been clearly declining. According to Freddie Mac, a new weekly low was set 16 times last year.
The most recent weekly record low was on January 7, when it was 2.65% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages. But then the trend changed and rates went up.
However, since April, these rises have mainly been replaced by falls, although, as a rule, small ones. In Freddie’s August 19 report, the weekly average is 2.86% (with 0.7 commission and points), way down from 2.87% in the previous week.
Expert mortgage rate forecasts
Looking to the future, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) have a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and predicting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector, and mortgage rates.
And here are their current rate forecasts for the remaining quarters of 2021 (quarters 3/21 and 4/21) and the first two quarters of 2022 (quarters 1/22 and 2/22).
The numbers in the table below refer to fixed rate mortgages for 30 years. Fannie and MBA were updated on August 19th. But Freddie’s was last updated on July 15th because now he only publishes those numbers on a quarterly basis.
|Forecaster||3 quarter 21 years||4 quarter / 21 years||1 quarter / 22 year||Quarter 2/22|
However, given so many unknowns, current projections may be even more speculative than usual.
All these forecasts imply an imminent increase in mortgage rates. But the differences between forecasters are striking. And it may turn out that Fannie is not helping to cut back on mortgage rates from the Federal Reserve, unlike Freddie and the MBA.
Find your lowest rate today
Some lenders were scared by the pandemic. And they limit their offers to only the tastiest mortgages and refinancing.
But others remain brave. And you can still find the cash advance refinancing, investment mortgage, or large loan you need. You just need to shop more broadly.
But of course, you should compare purchases widely, no matter what kind of mortgage you want. As a federal regulator Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is talking:
Finding a mortgage can lead to real savings. It may not seem like much, but saving even a quarter of a percent on a mortgage will save you thousands of dollars during the term of your loan.
Mortgage rate methodology
Mortgage reports get rates based on selected criteria from several credit partners every day. We get the average rate and annual interest rate for each loan type displayed in our chart. Since we average a set of rates, this gives you a better idea of what you can find on the market. In addition, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, fixed FHA and fixed FHA. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.