Gerrett Snedaker, CRB
In mid-March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Take shelter in place”. This basically brought the residential real estate industry to a standstill during April 2020. The market then accelerated rapidly from May to October. Thus, annual statistical comparisons will be skewed by these market deviations that occurred in the past year.
North Bay Real Estate Trends June 2021
All areas covered by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), including Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma counties, have a listing of 1,871 homes and condos for sale at the end of June. Stocks are 35 percent lower than a year ago (2,892) and 4 percent higher than last month (1,804). Sometimes the inventory exceeds 10,000 houses in the BAREIS area. 1,991 people were sold in June. This is 5 percent less than a year ago (2096) and 5 percent more than last month (1893).
Nationally, 373,000 homes were listed for sale at the end of June, up from 976,000 a year earlier. A “healthy / balanced” market might have 1,000,000 homes, and a “buyer’s market” would require about 1,500,000 homes. Of all new ads, 25 percent are sold “straight away,” and 75 percent last a week or two. The main concerns are where the seller is going to go and whether they are ready for a quick sale. Prices usually peak in July and remain flat until January. National forecasts predict an increase in inventories and a slowdown in price growth in the coming months and into 2022. Let’s see if that happens in Wine Country.
I have followed what I call the “price cut rate” data for the past six months or so. Nationwide, 20 to 25 percent of the homes included in the MLS can be expected to have a price cut before they are ultimately sold. As of June 2021, of all closed homes in the markets of our wine country, the range ranges from 11 percent (Mendocino County) to 18 percent (Napa County). Conversely, the ratio of homes sold in excess of the original list price ranged from 54 percent (Mendocino) to 60 percent (Sonoma County). In Napa County, it was 56 percent. The average price reduction rate for all neighborhoods rose from 29 percent in September 2020 to 14 percent in June 2021, while home sales above the original list price rose from 33 percent to 57 percent over the same period.
Mendocino County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Mendocino County at the end of June is 145. This is 29 percent lower than the June 2020 inventory (204) and 3 percent higher than last month’s inventory (141). New sales (83) in Mendocino County in June were 15 percent below the June 2020 rate (98) and 22 percent above the rate of the previous month (68). Mendocino County currently has 1.7 months of inventory based on current sales rates. The average number of days on the market for the 66 homes sold in Mendocino County in June is 54 days. For the purposes of our MLS (BAREIS), “Days on the Market” represents the time from the moment a property is first listed on the MLS to the date the property becomes pending (all terms removed). On average, it may take 0 to 30 additional days before properties are closed after they are closed. The average price for homes closed in June in Mendocino County was $ 570,000. This is 32% higher than the average price in June 2020 ($ 433,000). Homes in Mendocino County are in high demand and prices are rising rapidly.
Ukaya: The list of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Ukaya is 26 homes. That’s 21 percent below June 2020 (33) and 15 percent below last month’s stock level (30). There were 27 new sales in June. That’s 18 percent below June 2020 sales (33) and 42 percent above last month’s sales (19). There is now one month of inventory based on current sales rates. Days on the market for 22 closes last month were 38 days. The average price of homes sold in Ukiah last year ranged from $ 370,000 to $ 505,000. The average price for homes closed in June was $ 514,000.
Hopland and Talmage: The list of houses and condominiums for sale at the end of June in Hopland and Talmage is three houses. For comparison: 10 houses in inventory at the end of June 2020 and nine houses in inventory last month. There were four new sales in June. For comparison: five sales in June 2020 and five new sales last month. The Talmag-Hopland market closed four times last month, with an average of 37 days on the market.
Redwood and Calpella Valley: The list of homes and condominiums for sale at the end of June in the Redwood and Calpella Valley is 14 homes. That’s 18 percent below June 2020 (17) and 22 percent below last month’s stock level (18). There were 10 new sales in June. By comparison, there were seven sales in June 2020 and four new ones last month. At the current pace of sales, the stock of inventory is 1.4 months. The average price of homes sold in the Redwood / Calpella Valley last year ranged from $ 400,000 to $ 655,000. In June, the Redwood / Calpella Valley had four closings at an average price of $ 642,000 and houses sold in 36 days.
For more information, contact Gerrett Snedaker at 707-939-2009 or email@example.com.
Gerrett Snedaker, CRB, Broker / Partner at Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate | Wine Country GroupMason McDuffie Commercial Property.