The PGA TOUR travels to Detroit this week for the third edition of the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Detroit Golf Club’s North Course, a classic Donald Ross style, plays a relatively easy par 72 at 7,370 yards. The course is a mixture of Bentgrass and Poa greens and is one of the easiest spots in the TOUR, with two winners reaching 23 and 25 below par respectively. Bryson DeShambeau (+750; $ 11,400) defends this full field (156 men) after defeating Matthew Wolf (3500; $ 9,100) on three shots.
Rocket Mortgage Classic has quickly grown into a bird’s-eye party where players will need to take advantage of their chances of winning or risk getting home early. Last season, the reduction was 5 points, making the field the fourth easiest track in the TOUR (38th out of 41).
Detroit Golf Club is one of the flattest courses on the TOUR in terms of elevation differences, so if you find fairways and greens here, you won’t have a ton of other elements to knock your approach off. Rough rough diamonds can be grown, but fairways were very easy to find for professionals from the very beginning of the event, and cut makers averaged 3-5% better driving accuracy per week than the TOUR norm. Detroit Golf Club is also what you consider to be a busy place with drivers, with an average driving distance of 10 yards longer than other TOUR venues.
You might think the event favored the big players, and the fight between DeShambaut and Wolf last season definitely confirms that belief. The name of the game, however, is the transformation of the birdie, and Wolf and DeShambeau have hit over six shots here last season. In fact, none of the top 10 players scored less than 1.4 shots in a week last season, which gives you an idea of just how important this club is.
If you are targeting shorter attackers make sure they fire their approach shots as they will have to make up for their lack of range with solid iron play. The 125-150 and 150-175 ranges will be very popular, so short to medium iron play will be one of the main ones. In terms of target players, Hideki Matsuyama (+1600; $ 10,400), Kyle Stanley (+6,500; $ 7,600) and Henrik Norlander (+15,000; $ 6,800) are all players who are in the top ten by proximity as in the ratings of 125 -150 and in the rating. Approach range 150-175.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1600 to victory, $ 10,400 for DraftKings)
Matsuyama has found some stability in this tournament over the past two years, even as he struggled with his game in general. He finished T19 in 2019 and T26 here last season when he hit five shots on his sets. Matsuyama is one of the most consistent performers in terms of proximity to the 125-175 range, so you can expect him to shoot the pins from the start. He had good results at other pitches designed by Donald Ross (third in the 2016 Wyndham Championship and T15 in the 2018 BMW Championship) and showed good form after finishing the T26 at the US Open, where he scored over six strokes when approaching … … The odds of winning are more than reasonable given its upside potential in 2021, and for DraftKings contests, using it as an anchor is very affordable.
Charlie Hoffman (+2500 Win, $ 8,800 for DraftKings)
Over the past couple of months, Hoffman has done an incredible run for DFS targets. The veteran made over 10 cuts in a row and finished the T30 last week with 16 birds. Hoffman looks very suitable in many ways, but his birdie conversion rate really stands out. He is ranked first in SG: Approach stats, second in Birdies or Better in the last 50 rounds, and third in DraftKings points over the same period. That said, despite being consistent, he still costs less than $ 9K on DraftKings and has generally been a player who excelled at simpler venues over the course of his career. It looks well priced to be earning again this week.
Doc Redman (+6000 to win, $ 7,900 on DraftKings)
Redman really raised his game after a slow start to 2021. Despite the unremarkable T61 last week, for the third year, the player made a cut in five events in a row and performed well in all five of them. Redman ranks reasonably high in key proximity ranges, and has also established himself as Donald Ross’s design specialist, finishing second at the 2019 event and finishing third at the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club. – another Ross design – in 2020. Considering how well it runs on grass, its DFS price looks very attractive, and at +6000 there is still enough juice to bet on DraftKings Sportsbook. Redman is a player who looks to be out to win soon, and this is a great place to wrestle with.
Chris Kirk (+5500 Win, $ 7,400 for DraftKings)
Kirk missed a punch last week, but the veteran still ranks very well on many of his long-term form stats. In fact, Kirk is ranked in the top 45 in this area for all major statistic scores, including 12th in SG: Tee to Green and third in SG: Around the Green over the past 50 rounds. Although his performance has declined slightly, his approach game has remained strong and he is ranked 10th at 125-150 yards and ninth at over 200 yards in the last 50 rounds, which should prepare him very well for this distance. Kirk is a solid bird maker who can easily make up for the lack of length in a jersey with his matching play and use this softer setting, making him a good target for small players for big GPPs.
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