Credit unions are losing share in the still booming mortgage market

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US regional map showing the number of first mortgages skyrocketed in the first quarter of 2021

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest forecast is that refinancing volumes in the third quarter will be higher than expected, further mitigating the overall decline in mortgage loans issued for the full year.

The latest MBA and NCUA data show that the share of credit unions in first mortgages rose slightly from the fourth quarter of 2020, but fell sharply from the first quarter.

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday said existing home sales fell 0.9% from April to a seasonally adjusted 5.80 million in May, the fourth consecutive monthly fall. However, sales in May were 44.6% higher than a year earlier.

The MBA’s forecast, which is not seasonally adjusted, predicts second-quarter purchases of $ 460 billion, up 32% from the second quarter of 2020 and 44% higher than the first quarter of 2021.

NAR chief economist Lawrence Yoon said the slight decline from April to May pushes home sales to pre-pandemic levels.

Prices, however, continue to rise from previous records as buyers compete for homes that sell quickly, often above the listing price. The average secondary home price for all types of housing in May was $ 350,300, which is 23.6% higher than in May 2020. Since March 2012, prices have increased every month.

“Inventory shortages are still the overwhelming factor holding back home sales, but falling affordability is simply pushing some new buyers out of the market,” Yun said.

“However, the outlook for the market is encouraging,” he said. “The supply is expected to improve, giving buyers more options and helping to bring down the record high asking prices for existing homes.”

The MBA forecast for June 18 is unchanged from the forecast for May 19, according to which the number of issued mortgages for purchase will grow by 15.6% to $ 1.66 trillion this year, with a subsequent increase of 5.1% in 2022 and 2% in 2023.

But the Washington, DC-based group raised their third-quarter estimate by 27%. As a result, third-quarter refinancing is now expected to be $ 300 billion, up from $ 276 billion in the third quarter of 2019, but still well below $ 658 billion in the third quarter of 2020.

chart showing the MBA raised its refinancing forecast in the third quarter

For the year, the change in the third quarter means that the refinancing volume will be $ 1.81 trillion for the year, which will be 24% less than in 2020. However, in January, expected MBA refinancing will fall by about 47% this year.

Total procurement and refinancing this year is expected to reach $ 3.47 trillion, down nearly 10% from 2020, but not bad compared to a record year in 2020 and better than the 24% drop predicted. MBA in January.

NCUA data released this month shows credit union first mortgages totaled $ 74.6 billion in the three months ended March 31, up 49.5% from the first quarter of 2020. All lenders’ issuances nearly doubled to $ 1.09 trillion.

Credit unions accounted for 6.8% of primary mortgages among all lenders in the first quarter, up from 6.4% in the fourth quarter but down from 8.9% in the first quarter of 2020.

The top 10 credit unions issued their first mortgage loans worth $ 16.8 billion in the first quarter, which is 47.4% more than in the first quarter of 2020. They accounted for 16% of credit union assets and 23% of original mortgages. The top ten includes:

  1. Federal Credit Union of the Navy, Vienna, Virginia ($ 144.5 billion in assets, 10.3 million members), the first $ 5.9 billion mortgage was issued, up 18.4%.
  2. PenFed Credit Union, Tysons, Virginia ($ 27.3 billion, $ 2.2 million), received its first $ 2.7 billion in mortgages, nearly triple the $ 965.5 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  3. Lake Michigan Credit Union, Grand Rapids, Michigan ($ 10 billion, 406,861) provided its first $ 1.6 billion in mortgages, up 52.8%.
  4. Star One Credit Union, Sunnyvale, California ($ 10.5 billion, $ 114,286), had its first $ 1.4 billion mortgage, four times the $ 331.3 million in the first quarter of 2020.
  5. Government Officials Credit Union, Raleigh, North Carolina ($ 49.6 billion, $ 2.6 million), first mortgages issued for $ 913.5 million, down 1.5%.
  6. Schools First Federal Credit Union, Santa Ana, California (US $ 25.3 billion, US $ 1.2 million), had its first US $ 888 million in mortgages, up 4.6%.
  7. Federal Credit Union First Tech, San Jose, California ($ 14.1 billion, $ 630,286), had $ 873.6 million in first mortgages, up 34.8%.
  8. Idaho Central Credit UnionIn Chubbuck, Idaho ($ 7.3 billion, $ 444,065), the first $ 872.1 million in mortgages were disbursed, a 95% increase.
  9. OnPoint Community Credit Union, Portland, Oregon ($ 8.2 billion, 432.553), the first mortgage was issued in the amount of $ 854.2 million, up 73.2%.
  10. BECU, Tukwila, Washington ($ 28.2 billion, $ 1.3 million). Initial mortgage loans amounted to USD 809.7 million, an increase of 8.6%.

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